Morning Softs Report 11/14/17
Jack Scoville of The PRICE Futures Group - InsideFutures.com - Tue Nov 14, 9:50AM CST

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower yesterday after trading both sides of unchanged. The futures market is watching the harvest roll along and is debating the demand for US and world Cotton. Bullish traders say that USDA is seriously underestimating demand for the fiber, while the bears look to the high USDA ending stocks estimates and good, but not great, export sales and see no reason for futures prices to go anywhere. Futures had a muted reaction to the USDA reports last week and held to the range seen for the last few weeks. Chart patterns imply that the market is content to hold at current levels. USDA said that Cotton is now 64% harvested, from 60% last year and 64% average. Harvest is progressing, but farmers are reported to be quiet sellers right nos so the cash market has some demand that needs to be satisfied. Good commercial buying was seen at the lows last week. Harvest conditions are good in just about all areas. The market hopes for increased US export demand, and demand has improved over the last few weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should get mostly dry weather this week and light to moderate showers this weekend. Temperatures should be near normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be mostly above normal. The USDA average price is now 66.38 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 46,128 bales, from 46,922 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6890, 6800, and 6780 December, with resistance of 6950, 6970, and 7000 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 07, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 301,320
: Positions :
: 66,660 22,313 64,900 73,467 185,978 81,742 11,833 286,769 285,023: 14,551 16,296
: Changes from: October 31, 2017 (Change in open interest: 1,635) :
: -1,429 4,266 -265 1,812 -3,333 2,294 1,375 2,412 2,043: -777 -408
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.1 7.4 21.5 24.4 61.7 27.1 3.9 95.2 94.6: 4.8 5.4
: Total Traders: 301 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 96 85 103 59 68 28 14 249 217:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ rallied sharply in early trading, then gave the rally back and closed lower for the day. The price action implies that futures have found a short tem high. Traders still expect prices to hold firm overall. Production is now about two-thirds of what was expected at the start of the growing season. The demand side remains weak. However, for now it looks like the supply side has taken over as the force in the markets, although the supply side bullish fundamental might have lost its force yesterday.. Brazil weather has improved as groves are now getting rains, but suffered from drought at flowering time. It was also very hot and it is possible that production from Sao Paulo state will be less.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. Scattered showers are expected this weekend. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Some showers are possible this weekend. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 171.00 January. Support is at 159.00, 157.00, and 155.00 January, with resistance at 163.00, 165.00, and 166.00 January.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack – Nov 14
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 11/4/2017 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
11/4/2017 11/5/2016 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 182.82 207.10 -11.7%
Retail/Institutional 7.35 7.09 3.7%
Total 190.17 214.19 -11.2%
Pack
Bulk 0.80 1.90 -57.9%
Retail/Institutional 1.27 1.86 -32.0%
Total Pack 2.06 3.76 -45.1%
Reprocessed -2.04 -3.53 -42.2%
Pack from Fruit 0.03 0.23 -87.8%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.32 0.03 985.4%
Imports – Foreign 0.21 5.48 -96.1%
Domestic Receipts 0.58 – NA
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.02 0.19 -89.6%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ – – NC
Reprocessed FCTJ – – NC
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 182.07 211.16 -13.8%
Retail/Institutional 8.62 8.95 -3.8%
Total 190.69 220.11 -13.4%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 5.94 5.22 13.9%
Exports 0.26 11.42 -97.8%
Total (Bulk) 6.20 16.64 -62.7%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.27 1.49 -14.7%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.27 1.49 -14.7%
Total Movement 7.47 18.13 -58.8%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 175.87 194.52 -9.6%
Retail/Institutional 7.35 7.46 -1.6%
Ending Inventory 183.21 201.98 -9.3%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
4-Nov-17 5-Nov-16 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 185.02 212.24 -12.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.20 6.78 6.1%
Total 192.21 219.03 -12.2%
Pack
Bulk 3.58 6.42 -44.2%
Retail/Institutional 7.23 7.78 -7.1%
Total Pack 10.81 14.20 -23.9%
Reprocessed -10.65 -13.78 -22.7%
Pack from Fruit 0.16 0.42 -62.5%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.11 -0.71 -84.3%
Imports – Foreign 19.19 22.90 -16.2%
Domestic Receipts 0.83 – NA
Receipts of Florida Produ 0.03 0.55 -95.2%
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.13 0.07 103.1%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ – 0.09 -100.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 198.23 227.76 -13.0%
Retail/Institutional 14.43 14.57 -1.0%
Total 212.65 242.33 -12.2%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 21.41 21.10 1.4%
Domestic 0.95 12.14 -92.2%
Exports 22.36 33.25 -32.8%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 7.08 7.10 -0.3%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 7.08 7.10 -0.3%
Total Movement 29.44 40.35 -27.0%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 175.87 194.52 -9.6%
Retail/Institutional 7.35 7.46 -1.6%
Ending Inventory 183.21 201.98 -9.3%

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 7, 2017
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,700 :
: Positions :
: 2,788 7,082 1,132 0 0 1,785 783 68 862 343 2,415 :
: Changes from: October 31, 2017 :
: -66 459 -19 0 0 205 -171 3 51 17 187 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.8 60.5 9.7 0.0 0.0 15.3 6.7 0.6 7.4 2.9 20.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 67 :
: 19 18 5 0 0 12 6 4 15 6 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York was little changed in quiet trading. London closed a little higher. Many traders are expecting the market to move higher due to ideas of smaller crops from all over Latin America, and especially Brazil. Brazil exports are reduced on what is called reduced inventories held by exporters and producers. Producers are less interested in selling as well as the market tries to gauge production potential in Brazil after earlier drought and cold weather hurt trees at and before flowering time. There is plenty of rain now, but dry weather could return soon and stress the trees again There are also reports of short crops in parts of Central America and some areas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices. New York futures could be forming a bottom at this time. Ideas are that the funds and industry need to buy in New York, but Arabica demand is tepid and differentials bids remain weak. Europe is paying better than the US, but differentials overall are not strong..
Overnight News: Certified stocks are a little lower today and are about 1.910 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 118.92 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier weather through Saturday and showers on Sunday. Temperatures should average near to above normal today and tomorrow, then near to below normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 134.00 and 141.00 December. Support is at 125.00, 122.00, and 121.00 December, and resistance is at 128.00, 130.00 and 133.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1710 January. Support is at 1800, 1770, and 1740 January, and resistance is at 1850, 1880, and 1900 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 07, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 279,467
: Positions :
: 37,292 86,691 77,411 102,964 93,816 45,797 12,671 263,463 270,590: 16,003 8,877
: Changes from: October 31, 2017 (Change in open interest: 2,456) :
: -688 2,243 4,453 1,059 -3,366 -2,042 -1,443 2,783 1,887: -327 569
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.3 31.0 27.7 36.8 33.6 16.4 4.5 94.3 96.8: 5.7 3.2
: Total Traders: 511 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 168 147 161 133 114 27 17 413 373:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were higher again in New York as Brazil mills are choosing to produce more ethanol and on some talk of reduced production in India. UNICA once again showed reduced processing of Sugarcane and also less Sugar production. Part of the reduced Sugar production comes from the reduced crush pace, but part comes from reports that mills are now producing more ethanol for domestic fuel use and less Sugar for export. India says it will produce more than enough for domestic consumption, but did not mention that it would be exporting this year after the very short crop last year. London was higher on ideas of reduced availability of White Sugar. Trends are turning up in London and in New York after the price action last week on ideas of reduced availability of Sugar to the market. There have been no big demand reports, but the price action and the intermarket spreads suggest that someone is short in refined Sugar at this time. Upside price potential is limited as there are still projections for a surplus in the world production,and these projections for the surplus seem to be bigger. Even so, the charts in both New York and London imply that higher prices are coming.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature drier weather through Saturday and showers again on Sunday. Temperatures should be near to above normal today and tomorrow, then near to below normal
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1530, 1560, and 1590 March. Support is at 1480, 1460, and 1430 March, and resistance is at 1520, 1530, and 1580 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 394.00 and 406.00 March. Support is at 388.00, 383.00, and 380.00 March, and resistance is at 399.00, 405.00, and 412.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 07, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 824,704
: Positions :
: 130,302 202,785 153,090 263,931 385,638 209,432 17,005 756,756 758,519: 67,949 66,186
: Changes from: October 31, 2017 (Change in open interest: 4,295) :
: -525 -5,030 1,379 4,249 3,590 1,454 32 6,557 -29: -2,262 4,324
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.8 24.6 18.6 32.0 46.8 25.4 2.1 91.8 92.0: 8.2 8.0
: Total Traders: 242 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 64 65 72 75 70 22 11 198 188:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower in New York and slightly higher in London, and trends are still up in both markets. Some talk of disease in crops in Ivory Coast has created much of the recent buying interest. At least one advisory and analytical brokerage was said to be issuing buy recommendations last week due to the charts and disease talk. Demand ideas are getting stronger. Callebrut said yesterday that its Cocoa grinding margins were near six-year highs, implying good demand for finished products like Chocolate. World production ideas remain high. Harvest reports show good to very good production will be seen this year in West Africa. However, Nigeria now says that a lack of timely rainfall has hurt yields and supplies are short. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East Africa is getting better rains now along with cooler temperatures. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: A few isolated showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.891 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2280 and 2370 December. Support is at 2160, 2120, and 2100 December, with resistance at 2230, 2260, and 2280 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1680 and 1760 December. Support is at 1600, 1560, and 1530 December, with resistance at 1650, 1690, and 1730 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 07, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 277,770
: Positions :
: 59,827 61,582 43,256 110,188 147,723 47,223 16,880 260,494 269,441: 17,276 8,329
: Changes from: October 31, 2017 (Change in open interest: -30,334) :
: 6,211 1,858 -15,605 -23,634 -10,142 2,522 -5,801 -30,506 -29,691: 172 -643
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.5 22.2 15.6 39.7 53.2 17.0 6.1 93.8 97.0: 6.2 3.0
: Total Traders: 276 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 101 80 80 48 43 27 7 225 172:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Shortage of Cocoa Worsens in Southwest Nigeria Officials, Traders
By Obafemi Oredein
Special to Dow Jones Newswires
IBADAN, NIGERIA-Harvest of the 2017-18 main cocoa crop in Nigeria’s key southwest region remains low due to rainfall problems, worsening the shortage of beans reported in the region last month, industry officials and traders said on Monday.
“The yield is low. There is a serious scarcity of cocoa in the region,” said Adebola Alagbada, national secretary of the Cocoa Association of Nigeria. Rainfall, he said, did not start early at the beginning of the year, while the appearance of new leaves and flowering on cocoa trees were delayed, causing poor development of cocoa. Heavy rainfall between July and September in the southwest resulted in the outbreak of the black pod disease, which also damaged cocoa crops, according to CAN.
The southwest, made up of the major cocoa-producing states Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo and Ekiti, accounts for 70% of Nigeria’s annual cocoa production of about 300,000 metric tons, said the national cocoa association.
Late last month, cocoa officials spoke of a severe shortage of cocoa beans in the southwest and the abrupt halt of late rains that could improve the production outlook.
Toba Adenowuro, cocoa desk officer at the Ondo state Ministry of Agriculture, said the country’s output in the new season could be at 270,000 metric tons below the CAN forecast of 280,000 tons, revised from 320,000 tons, due to cocoa losses in the southwest region. Ondo state is the country’s largest cocoa producer.
Mr. Alagbada said the late rains had stopped and Ekiti state, for example, had only two showers last month and no other rainfall since then. He also said Nigeria should expect low cocoa production this season.
“Cocoa prices were higher this time last year, at about 950,000 Nigerian naira ($2,625.83) to NGN1 million per ton, now cocoa output is low and prices are low. It is a double tragedy for farmers this year,” said Mr. Alagbada.
Cocoa is now selling in some of Nigeria’s producing states at around NGN600,000 to NGN630,000 and even lower in some states.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

View Morning Softs Archives • www.pricegroup.com

A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017