Morning Grains Report 05/16/18
Jack Scoville of The PRICE Futures Group - InsideFutures.com - Wed May 16, 2:20PM CDT

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were mostly higher in range trading. Black Sea prices remain the cheapest, but important growing areas of Ukraine and southern Russia have been dry. Some beneficial rains are in the forecast for Ukraine. Warmer and drier weather is expected for the Midwest to help speed crop development after some big rains this weekend. Warmer weather should also move out of the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies to allow for some fieldwork to start in Spring Wheat areas. Western sections of the central and southern Great Plains could see some important rains. USDA showed that fieldwork has caught up in many areas in the past week. Progress in planting Spring Wheat moved ahead, and should increase with the warmer weather for the next week. There will be some rains and the overall pace could remain behind normal. Demand remains the big problem for Wheat traders. The competition from eastern Europe and the Black Sea area remains very tough, and US prices are currently above the competition.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather except for showers on Thursday. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers again on Thursday. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 482 July. Support is at 485, 455, and 465 July, with resistance at 499, 501, and 507 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 504, 496, and 495 July, with resistance at 516, 530, and 538 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 594 July. Support is at 600, 593, and 591 July, and resistance is at 608, 617, and 620 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in quiet trading. Sources in Arkansas say that planting has been active on warmer weather and that crops are finally starting to emerge. Some producers switched to Soybeans for some of the area due to Price and the bad weather. Planting is also about done along the Gulf Coast. It remains very dry in Texas and producers are having to flush crops more than normal. There are worries that are starting to be Heard about yield potential for the state. Ideas are that little old crop Rice is available in the cash market, and the situation is not likely to improve before the new crop becomes available late this Summer as farmers are mostly sold out. Farmers will plant more Rice this year, but the increase in planted area is not considered burdensome.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers and storms off and on all week. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1222 July. Support is at 1260, 1252, and 1247 July, with resistance at 1272, 1281, and 1289 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – May 16
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.52 11.21 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 17.11 11.58 0.00
Broken 10.57 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher. The weather problems with the Winter Corn crop in Brazil continues with no real rains in sight for major growing areas. USDA cut the Brazil production estimate last week, and there are chances for the crop to ge smaller if rains do not appear soon. None is currently in the forecast. It is hard to rally the market at this time of year as the crop is getting planted in a timely way and amid generally good conditions. USDA showed planting progress above trade expectations last night. Strong planting progress was possible again this week, although some rains will be seen off and on through the week to keep the pace slower than some in the trade might expect. The most affected areas right now by planting delays are Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 392 and 384 July. Support is at 393, 389, and 388 July, and resistance is at 399, 402, and 405 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 231, 230, and 225 July, and resistance is at 239, 242, and 244 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower. The US and China will enter into more talks this week to try to resolve the trade dispute, and there are ideas that some agreements are possible. No mention is made of Soybeans or other ag products yet, but ideas are that Soybeans can flow to China as well. The tariff threats with China remain alive, and wire reports indicate that Chinese buyers are buying from anywhere but the US right now. The trade also hopes for a peaceful solution to the NAFTA talks to keep Mexican and Canadian demand alive. China still prefers Brazilian Soybeans due to the tariff threats and as the new crop Brazil harvest is now available, and the US stands to lose demand in coming weeks from that buyer and maybe others as Brazil expands market share. Farmers in parts of the southern Midwest are planting Soybeans, and the planting pace last week was above trade expectations. Planting of Corn and Soybeans will increase in the north, but progress should remain slow due to big rains.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans mixed to down with objectives of 993, 992, and 970 July. Support is at 1011, 1002, and 994 July, and resistance is at 1023, 1026, and 1028 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 378.00, 377.00, and 374.00 July, and resistance is at 392.00, 393.00, and 397.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3100, 3070, and 3050 July, with resistance at 3140, 3170, and 3210 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mixed at the close after trading higher much of the day. The market had tried to rally with Chicago, but fell as Soybean oil fell late. New crop months have held firmer than old crop months amid lower than expected planted area estimates and unfavorable planting weather until now. The weather is improved, and some producer selling is seen. Charts show that trends are in a big trading range. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was lower. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand, but participants want to see the demand. Exports so far this month ar down from last month.. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 528.00, 525.00, and 523.00 July, with resistance at 536.00, 537.00, and 53\9.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2460, 2390, and 2280 August, with resistance at 2480, 2500, and 2520 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for more precipitation through the week, but mostly the first half of the week, Temperatures mostly near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 53 July 152 July 53 July 46 July 27-Jul
June 50 July 53 July 44 July
July 55 September 58 July 48 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
June 68 July 4-Jul 100 September July
July 80 July 3-Jul 98 September August
August 105 August 2-Aug 93 September
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 15
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder Bay,
Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 520.11 dn 0.10
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 545.50 up 1.80
2 Can 532.50 up 1.80
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 578.50 up 1.30
2 Can 565.50 up 1.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 637.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 637.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 640.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 640.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 637.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 637.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 640.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 640.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 620.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 510.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 2,420 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 223.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR3.9650)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 235,592 lots, or 8.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 3,626 3,840 3,501 3,640 3,685 3,578 -107 3,826 286
Sep-18 3,729 3,731 3,668 3,686 3,749 3,694 -55 191,480 173,358
Nov-18 3,716 3,749 3,645 3,710 3,836 3,678 -158 330 10
Jan-19 3,805 3,808 3,634 3,772 3,825 3,759 -66 28,426 14,604
Mar-19 3,760 3,795 3,679 3,770 3,872 3,720 -152 504 2
May-19 3,846 3,846 3,650 3,810 3,842 3,722 -120 6,460 1,960
Jul-19 3,800 3,810 3,648 3,810 3,839 3,698 -141 1,364 18
Sep-19 3,869 3,869 3,707 3,834 3,902 3,749 -153 3,128 368
Nov-19 3,751 3,971 3,601 3,794 3,902 3,755 -147 74 16
Corn
Turnover: 293,418 lots, or 5.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 1,755 1,761 1,753 1,758 1,752 1,757 5 39,502 199,410
Sep-18 1,766 1,771 1,765 1,770 1,762 1,767 5 192,216 797,624
Nov-18 1,793 1,798 1,790 1,795 1,785 1,795 10 362 1,434
Jan-19 1,817 1,824 1,813 1,821 1,811 1,818 7 55,988 260,012
Mar-19 1,835 1,846 1,830 1,840 1,825 1,839 14 556 2,084
May-19 1,850 1,904 1,850 1,885 1,825 1,886 61 4,794 3,434
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,573,720 lots, or 10.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 2,973 2,973 2,880 2,911 2,979 2,928 -51 212,392 161,630
Aug-18 3,026 3,027 2,968 2,980 3,040 3,000 -40 118 620
Sep-18 3,028 3,030 2,932 2,971 3,041 2,974 -67 2,592,460 2,928,624
Nov-18 3,045 3,045 2,960 2,991 3,064 2,994 -70 1,116 5,174
Dec-18 3,035 3,046 3,008 3,025 3,066 3,023 -43 52 426
Jan-19 3,059 3,064 2,966 3,020 3,081 3,014 -67 714,806 1,208,924
Mar-19 2,995 2,996 2,902 2,952 3,022 2,945 -77 2,998 4,710
May-19 2,949 2,964 2,849 2,897 3,022 2,907 -115 49,778 41,652
Palm Oil
Turnover: 351,410 lots, or 17.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-18 5,068 5,282 5,002 5,002 5,264 5,068 -196 18 6
Jul-18 4,996 4,996 4,996 4,996 5,150 4,996 -154 2 2
Aug-18 – – – 5,068 5,068 5,068 0 0 32
Sep-18 5,088 5,092 5,034 5,066 5,084 5,062 -22 311,032 517,730
Oct-18 – – – 5,114 5,114 5,114 0 0 6
Nov-18 – – – 5,126 5,126 5,126 0 0 16
Dec-18 – – – 5,088 5,088 5,088 0 0 0
Jan-19 5,102 5,118 5,072 5,090 5,108 5,092 -16 40,090 105,400
Feb-19 – – – 5,202 5,202 5,202 0 0 2
Mar-19 – – – 5,108 5,108 5,108 0 0 0
Apr-19 – – – 5,250 5,250 5,250 0 0 18
May-19 5,150 5,180 5,136 5,180 5,250 5,160 -90 268 226
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 455,834 lots, or 26.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 5,728 5,728 5,728 0 0 126
Aug-18 – – – 5,826 5,826 5,826 0 0 10
Sep-18 5,768 5,778 5,720 5,740 5,784 5,742 -42 379,490 930,718
Nov-18 – – – 5,882 5,882 5,882 0 0 26
Dec-18 – – – 5,908 5,950 5,908 -42 0 22
Jan-19 5,918 5,922 5,860 5,876 5,926 5,886 -40 74,120 210,412
Mar-19 6,060 6,060 6,032 6,032 6,078 6,044 -34 6 70
May-19 6,028 6,030 5,960 5,974 6,078 5,990 -88 2,218 1,830
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.